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2025 Global Emissions Peak Predicted - IEA


FILE: Black clouds billow from smokestacks in Houston, Texas. Taken July 1972

The International Energy Agency [IEA] said Thursday it believes global energy emissions will peak in 2025 as surging prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine propel investment in renewables as it released its latest annual "World Energy Outlook" report.

Based on the latest measures and policies announced by governments in the face of soaring energy prices, the IEA forecasts global clean energy investment to rise by more than 50 percent from today's levels to $2 trillion per year by 2030.

Those measures will propel sustained gains in renewables and nuclear power.

"As a result, a high point for global emissions is reached in 2025," the IEA said.

Only last year the IEA said there was "no clear peak in sight" in energy emissions, but the new higher investment in wind and solar is setting up demand for all fossil fuels to peak or plateau, leading to a drop in emissions.

However, "The global energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine is causing profound and long-lasting changes that have the potential to hasten the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system." the IEA said.

The Paris-based organization, which advises energy-consuming nations, said that its forecast sees demand for all types of fossil fuels peaking or hitting a plateau.

Coal use, which has seen a temporary bump higher, will drop back in the next few years as more renewables come online.

Natural gas hits a plateau in the end of the decade, instead of the previous forecast of a steady rise.

Oil demand levels off in the mid-2030s and then gradually declines towards mid-century due to uptake of electric vehicles, instead of the earlier estimate of a steady increase.

Overall, the share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix in the IEA's stated policies scenario falls from around 80 percent to just above 60 percent by 2050.

"The IEA, with all its expertise and authority is clear: clean energy investments must triple by 2030, and gas is a dead end," said Laurence Tubiana, head of the European Climate Foundation and France's former climate ambassador.

"The current European energy crisis clearly proves the dangers of gas: high price, volatility, geopolitical dependence," she added.


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