Conflict
Tigray Peace Top 2023 Task
This new year will be key to determining whether the ceasefire reached in November can deliver a lasting peace in northern Ethiopia's Tigray region.
On Nov. 2, Ethiopia's federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a guerrilla force-turned political party that dominates the region, agreed to stop fighting following African Union-mediated talks.
The truce has enabled international aid deliveries to resume to parts of Tigray. Last week, state-owned Ethiopian Airlines resumed to Tigray's capital.
The two-year-long war caused a dire humanitarian crisis, killing tens of thousands, leaving millions in severe need of food and threatening the stability of Africa's second-most populous country.
But the prospects for peace remain uncertain.
The TPLF, which dominated Ethiopia for nearly three decades before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018, accuses his government of wanting to centralize power at the expense of regions. Abiy accuses the TPLF of trying to regain national power. Each side rejects the other's narrative.
Major issues remain to be resolved, including the withdrawal of Eritrean and other forces that have fought alongside the government and the future of disputed territory claimed by both Tigray and the neighboring region of Amhara.
Although Eritrea, a sworn enemy of the TPLF that has fought on the side of Abiy's government, began withdrawing some of its forces from two major Tigray towns recently, it is not yet clear whether its troops will pull out of Tigray altogether.
Until they do, diplomats and analysts worry Tigray forces will refuse to disarm, risking a resumption of hostilities.
Human rights violations by all sides - including extrajudicial killings, rapes and looting - have been documented by United Nations agencies, Ethiopia's state appointed human rights commission and media, including Reuters. All sides deny the allegations.
International partners are heavily invested in ending the war. The AU, Kenya and South Africa helped mediate the truce and are keen to deliver an African solution to the problem. The United States has said it will not hesitate to impose sanctions on parties that fail to abide by the truce.
Ethiopia, seeking to revive interest from foreign investors, has restarted the sale of a 40% stake in state-owned Ethio Telecom and a separate plan to issue a second full telecoms license.
It is also targeting a debt restructuring under the Group of 20's Common Framework and has asked the International Monetary Fund for a new loan program, but progress has been complicated by the conflict.
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