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Recession Lowers Career Arcs - UN

FILE: Workers at the Target Technology Innovation Center office in San Francisco. Taken Sept. 19, 2013
FILE: Workers at the Target Technology Innovation Center office in San Francisco. Taken Sept. 19, 2013

A global economic slowdown will force more workers into accepting lower quality, poorly paid jobs in 2023, while inflation gobbles up real term wages, the United Nations warned Monday.

Global employment grew by 2.3 percent last year, but is expected to expand by just one percent this year, to nearly 3.4 billion people with work.

The projected rise is down on the 1.5 percent the International Labor Organization had previously predicted, adding to the gloomy outlook.

"The slowdown in global employment growth means that we don't expect the losses incurred during the Covid-19 crisis to be recovered before 2025," the ILO's research chief Richard Samans said in a statement.

Global unemployment is projected to reach 208 million people this year, an unemployment rate of 5.8 percent.

The projection is up from 205 million in 2022, with the ILO saying most of the shock of the economic slowdown has been absorbed by "rapidly falling real wages" due to accelerating inflation, rather than job losses.

Global unemployment was at 192 million in 2019 before surging to 235 million in 2020 as the Covid pandemic kicked in.

Meanwhile the global jobs gap stood at 473 million in 2022.

The ILO said deficits in decent work had been worsened by multiple, overlapping crises, including Russia's war in Ukraine, emerging geopolitical tensions, an uneven recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and continuing supply chain bottlenecks.

"Together, these have created the conditions for stagflation -- simultaneously high inflation and low growth -- for the first time since the 1970s," the agency said in its annual World Employment and Social Outlook report.

ILO director general Gilbert Houngbo said the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic was particularly patchy in low- and middle-income countries, and was further hampered by climate change and humanitarian challenges.

"Projections of a slowdown in economic and employment growth in 2023 imply that most countries will fall short of a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels in the foreseeable future," the former prime minister of Togo said in the report.

"Worse still, progress in labor markets is likely to be far too slow to reduce the enormous decent work deficits that existed prior to, and were exacerbated by, the pandemic."

This number comprises unemployment plus those who want work but are not seeking a job, either due to being discouraged by previous failed attempts or having other obligations such as care responsibilities.

The 2022 global jobs gap was around 33 million above the 2019 level, with a rate of 15 percent for women and 10.5 percent for men.

"The current slowdown means that many workers will have to accept lower quality jobs, often at very low pay, sometimes with insufficient hours," the ILO said.

The report said people aged 15 to 24 were facing "severe difficulties" in finding and keeping decent employment.

The ILO called for an investment surge in education and training, saying two-thirds of the global youth labor force was "without a basic set of skills", which limited their job prospects and pushed them into lower-quality work.

Around two billion workers worldwide were in informal employment last year.

"Given the substantial rise in uncertainty regarding the future course of the global economy, employment expansion is fastest among informal workers," the ILO said, with the informal sector driving most of the Covid-19 employment recovery.

In 2022, an estimated 214 million workers, or 6.4 percent of all those employed, were in extreme poverty, earning less than the equivalent of $1.90 a day.

The report said the long-term slowdown in productivity growth in advanced countries had spread to major emerging economies - "a matter of much concern" since growth in productivity could combat the concurrent crises in purchasing power, well-being and ecological sustainability.

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Dispute Over Technology Impedes Morocco Solar Projects

FILE —Aerial view of the Noor 3 solar power station, near Ouarzazate, southern Morocco, April. 1, 2017. The king unveiled one of the world's biggest solar plants, taking advantage of the Sahara sunshine and a growing global push for renewable energy.
FILE —Aerial view of the Noor 3 solar power station, near Ouarzazate, southern Morocco, April. 1, 2017. The king unveiled one of the world's biggest solar plants, taking advantage of the Sahara sunshine and a growing global push for renewable energy.

RABAT —A dispute over concentrated solar power (CSP) technology is behind years of delays to Morocco's biggest planned solar project after problems at another prominent plant that caused long shut downs, three sources close to the project said.

FILE —A picture taken on February 4, 2016 shows an aerial view of the solar mirrors at the Noor 1 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant, some 20Km (12.5 miles) outside the central Moroccan town of Ouarzazate, ahead of its inauguration.
FILE —A picture taken on February 4, 2016 shows an aerial view of the solar mirrors at the Noor 1 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant, some 20Km (12.5 miles) outside the central Moroccan town of Ouarzazate, ahead of its inauguration.

Morocco has some of the most ambitious green energy goals of any developing nation, aiming for renewables to represent 52% of installed capacity by 2030 from 37.6% now, mostly through investments in solar and wind plants.

However, it is already falling behind on solar, with only 831 megawatts (MW) installed so far compared to the 2,000 MW that was planned for 2020. Wind has made up some of the shortfall but polluting coal plants still make up most output. Construction has not even started on the planned $2 billion 800 MW Noor Midelt I plant, which was meant to start operating this year, after the Energy Ministry and grid operator ONEE rejected the proposed CSP technology, the sources said.

FILE —An aerial view of the solar mirrors at the Noor 1 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant, some 20Km (12.5 miles) outside the central Moroccan town of Ouarzazate on February 4, 2016.
FILE —An aerial view of the solar mirrors at the Noor 1 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant, some 20Km (12.5 miles) outside the central Moroccan town of Ouarzazate on February 4, 2016.

State energy agency MASEN awarded the contract to develop Noor Midelt I in 2019 to a consortium led by EDF Renouvelables. It asked for the plant to have both photovoltaic (PV) technology, which is cheaper but has little ability to store power, and CSP, which is more expensive but continue powering the grid for hours after dark.

However, after the contract was awarded ONEE and the Energy Ministry said they would only agree to buy the power if MASEN either abandoned CSP for PV or changed from thermal salt energy storage to batteries, the sources said.

MASEN and the grid eventually signed a power purchase agreement, but there are still discussions between MASEN and the development consortium over the technology specifications, the sources said.

MASEN says the project was delayed due to the pandemic and is now in the final stage of development but it did not respond to a specific Reuters request for comment on the technology dispute.

FILE—Pablo Ines, of Spain, walks in the building site of Morocco's Noor I solar power plant, near Ouarzazate, Morocco, April, 24, 2015 .
FILE—Pablo Ines, of Spain, walks in the building site of Morocco's Noor I solar power plant, near Ouarzazate, Morocco, April, 24, 2015 .

EDF Renouvelables said Morocco had decided to restart the development in 2022 with a mix of PV, CSP and battery storage. It said the project was "at the final stage of development" and all partners "remain committed."

The Energy Ministry did not comment directly on the problems at Noor Midelt but it said it "tries to be as technology agnostic" as it can as long as costs, sustainability and security objectives are maintained to avoid undue risk.

The World Bank and the European Investment Bank said their financing terms for the project remain valid as discussions continue between MASEN and the consortium. The World Bank said construction will take 30 months once negotiations end.

CSP Plant Difficulties

ONEE cited problems at Noor Ouarzazate, Morocco's best-known solar complex, as the reason for wanting MASEN to change the technology at Noor Midelt, the sources said.

FILE — King Mohammed VI of Morocco waves a Moroccan flag as Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy CEO Mustapha Bakkoury, 2nd right, applauds during the launch of the Noor Ouarzazate 4 solar plant, in Ouarzazate, central Morocco, April 1, 2017.
FILE — King Mohammed VI of Morocco waves a Moroccan flag as Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy CEO Mustapha Bakkoury, 2nd right, applauds during the launch of the Noor Ouarzazate 4 solar plant, in Ouarzazate, central Morocco, April 1, 2017.

Technological problems stopped all output at a 150 MW plant there for a year from summer 2021, said two of the sources. "Noor Ouarzazate helped put Morocco on the global map of large-scale renewable energy projects. But a closer look in terms of operation costs and maintenance issues show that the plant is rather a liability," said a source close to Noor Midelt I.

"With hindsight, Ouarzazate served as a testing ground for an immature CSP technology," said another source.

Morocco's economic, social, and environmental council recommended abandoning CSP altogether in a 2020 report due to its high cost compared to PV and wind. That report said MASEN was operating an $80 million a year deficit at the Noor Ouarzazate complex because it is selling power for less than the production cost.

MASEN, which commissioned Noor Ouarzazate, said the plant had shown "good performance in 2023 both on peak and off-peak hours." It added that CSP technology was a solution that offers storage, helping address grid needs at peak hours.

ACWA Power, the developer of Noor Ouarzazate, and grid operator ONEE did not respond to Reuters requests for comment.

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