The forecast assumes an average crop output after the worst drought in decades, a drop in foreign demand for goods and oil prices at $90 per barrel, the HCP said.
These figures remain subject to uncertainties emanating from the impact of geopolitical tensions as well as pandemic and climate risks, it said.
Inflation, driven by imports, would stand at 1.9% in 2023 from 5% in 2022, it said.
The fiscal deficit would widen to 5.2% of GDP in 2023 from 3.9% this year, on the back of lower tax revenue and higher spending on subsidies and social safety nets, it said.
Money supply would increase 5.1% in 2023 after 6.1% in 2022, HCP said.