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ANC's Leaked Policy Document Warns of Defeat in 2024 Election

FILE- South African President and African National Congress (ANC) President, Cyril Ramaphosa looks on, during a ceremony in Pretoria, South Africa, Thursday, Nov. 4, 2021 where the results of the local elections held Monday were announced.

A policy document by South Africa's ruling African National Congress says projections show its support will dip below 50% in 2024 national elections.

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress, the ANC, has acknowledged in a document leaked to the media that it’s facing defeat in the next election in 2024.

The ANC has not disputed the authenticity of the document, leaked to several Johannesburg media outlets, which was reportedly written by party leaders, including the president, for debate at an ANC leadership meeting in July.

Director of Johannesburg’s Center for Risk Analysis, John Endres, says the document displays “rare honesty” from ruling party leaders.

“It says that based on current modeling and trajectories, they’re going to drop below 50-percent come 2024. We think they’re probably right in that assessment.”

Violent crime is rampant in South Africa, which has some of the world’s highest murder, rape and armed robbery rates, along with the highest unemployment rate in the world at almost 40-percent.

Corruption and mismanagement have eroded state-owned enterprises to the point where many barely function. National power company, Eskom, for example, are imposing more and longer electricity blackouts.

With so much baggage, the ANC is hanging on to power by a thread, as shown by its loss of six out of South Africa’s 8 major cities after local government elections last year.

But party spokespeople have said that the ruling party remains “confident” it will solve its 'problems' soon.

The ANC has dominated South Africa politics since its leader, Nelson Mandela, became president in the nation's first multiracial elections in 1994. But after nearly three decades of holding power, the party says it has to act, or lose.

In the paper, ANC leaders mention three “steps” to address the party’s “flagging fortunes” – “revitalizing” ANC structures by ending party infigbhting, regaining public trust by building a capable and ethical state; and advancing “the ideals of the National Democratic Revolution,” by, for example, putting more of the economy in the hands of the black majority.

These steps, says Endres, have been proclaimed by the ANC since 1994, and have never been carried out.

“Our assessment is that this is probably as good as it’s going to get in terms of idea development. If there’s not anything else forthcoming, we don’t see any change in the ANC’s trajectory."